Oct 2021 Wrap-up

This was a successful month for both the NASDAQ 100 and for our Put Credit Spread strategy.  The NASDAQ 100 gained about 7.6% over the month of October.  Our Put Credit Strategy brought in $1,000 on an account valued at $20,000, coming out to a 5% gain for the month with just 3 trades that reached their expiration date over the 4 weeks.  We would have had the same 5% gain as long as NDX did not have a 5% decline in any of the 3 weeks of trading.  In theory, I could have had another 1.5% gain in the first week of the month, but that still would not have matched the NASDAQ 100 gains for October.

Looking back at history, NDX has had a gain of 7.6% in only 7 months out of the last 60 months and 4 of these months came during the recovery from the COVID Plunge.  Average monthly gains over the last 5 years come out to about 1.9%, so I believe that the market is still a little overheated.  I think that October should have closed around 15300, and I'm expecting November to be flat and to close around 15900. These numbers are purely based on historical numbers, and do not account for any social, economic or political factors.